House prices riseGo down

Real estate related to people's livelihood, it is now top priority of the Chinese people care most, as long as the topic of real estate on a variety of media is always able to attract almost everyone's attention. As the Director of housing and urban-rural development research center, Chen Huai says always caused widespread concern in the community. China Development press recently published a new book, guangsha Chen Huai world: real estate economicsA b c, new book available soon became a best seller, a lively online, some users have even called it "the most popular interpretation of the real estate". Upon the request of journalists, Chen Huai from a few days ago he was an academic's perspective on some core issues on China's real estate market prospects: House prices occurs when turning points? Developers ' profit can reachPrice objective? Much house prices will fall sharply? Tax on real estate regulation and how much? Developer profits less housing prices won't drop Reporter: real estate market in China, many people believe that House is expensive, prices are high, is one of the basic reasons developers reap exorbitant profits. Therefore, many people hope decline in house pricesTo inhibit developers profit policy. You believe that reducing the profits of developers can achieve the goal of falling house prices? Chen Huai: developers have "excessive profits"? Did. However, profits may not be any price space. Assume that somewhere in Beijing to build a House, cost $ 10,000 per square meter. This $ 10,000 including land, construction materials, labor, management feeAnd so on. House is completed, developers to $ 11,000 per square meter price. In other words, in this case the developers ' margin in only 10%; in other words, the price of the House space only up to $ 1000. The secret, not all of the cost of building a House is the developer. In this case, in a cost of $ 10,000 developers mayOnly $ 2000; additional $ 8,000, you might have $ 3,000 from bank loans, $ 5,000 from the purchasers of the presale. In fact, many developers and even $ 2000 worth of "capital" is not, in strong sales season, they often "play" is "five pots three covers" game. The advance of the first phase of the project may be used toCovers the four phases of a project, to further improve financial margins and turnover speed. In the economic sense, margin costs of profitability and profit rate on funds. Profits from profit rate on funds, and price by space only depends on the cost margin. Follow the above we assumed that developers profit margin reached 50%, and price reduction of space at most 10%. SoSaid profits may not be the price space. Brilliant period will continue for 20-30 years of real estate reporter: for some time now, appeared around developer discount promotional activities, not only in the first-tier cities, and had spread to two or three-tier cities, so people are talking of jangling "inflection point" is coming, how do you see this problem? Chen Huai: House prices riseGo down, or go up by the drop in the process of change is a price change will occur. And as long as market, this phenomenon will never end. But there is more emphasis is, on the price curve, by rose go down, go up or drop the point, does not call an "inflection point" diablo 3 gold, and is called "extreme points", or "vertex". What is an "inflection point"？ On the higher mathematics, corner refers to the rate of change is accelerating into a slowdown, or from slowdown to accelerate that. Inflection points on both sides, the curve does not appear in the direction of turn. Change is accentuated curves from the (falling) becomes slow rise in (falling), or from slowing rise (decline) to become accentuated (down). In fact, strictly an "inflection point"Righteousness, regardless of whether property prices there have been down, housing price curves have been around for a number of times an "inflection point". This at least 2008 from acceleration to deceleration of inflection point, 2009 years to slow down to speed up the inflection point also there 2010 years from acceleration to deceleration of inflection points. From the sense of changes in house prices, policy can indeed make rate changes"Turning point" and change "extreme points", but these an "inflection point" or "extreme points" meaning just adjust the amplitude and frequency of price fluctuations and no fundamental changes in the market, the law of supply and demand, China's national conditions to determine long-term trends of prices. The brilliant period of Chinese real estate industry will continue 20-30. That kind of thinking that policies be free to put theUnderstanding of the market price is actually exaggerating the subjective will of the people on the effects of objective laws, it is virtually impossible to achieve the desired effect. House, the more the more price Reporter: you talked about in the book, more House, price, this make you feel very confused, and ordinarily supplied, the more the price should be lower only, please give us an explanation. Chen Huai: marketEconomy is the Basic Law of price changes, supply increases, prices fall. Clothing, such as cars, steel products, has been the case. But House prices are not the same. Many people believe that housing prices were rising too fast in some cities in China, mainly due to the two parts are too bad. One is a local government, they trade to vigorously engaged in "financial"; the other part is the developer, they reap stormsLee diablo 3 power leveling, and price. These two factors in the Chinese real estate market is really evident. Deduction of these two factors House prices will rise? It is assumed that people build at a later time, the land is free; developers don't seek profits. Price after deducting the cost of land, developers profit what is left? The cost of building the House itself, industry term called "construction cost"。 Assume that we built in Beijing within the second ring of the House; cost of $ 2000 per square metre, based on 2000 Yuan price sold. The question then is, within the second ring road building was full, sold out, it was also moving to Beijing, what should I do? We are in the third ring road built? In third-ring road-building the same House, the cost per square metre$ 2000. The answer lies in the next step. If Beijing's third ring road, the House price is $ 2000, that there may be a household and a household to discuss two of the second ring road interchange, the same House, I subsidies you 1000 Yuan per square meter. Once a household replaced, Beijing within the second ring road means that prices will rise to $ 3,000 per square metre。 Easily to this inference, if Beijing's House to seven Central, eight loops, prices in Beijing within the second ring is up to 30,000 yuan per square meter! In other words, even in the absence of rising land prices and developer profit, with the urban expansion of the scale of, house prices will rise no doubt. This is the "House as much as possible cover prices" the truth. (.. JI.. exams.)