129742938953125000_316Shechunning Yang Yongguang Qiao Yu Fund Roundtable participant shechunning Invesco great wall letters increased profits Bond Fund to be appointed managers yangyongguangbo Qiao Yu Yi proposed Bond Fund Fund managers when accommodation Tim Lee bond funds to be appointed manager of the four seasons followed in 20042011, after a domestic bond funds a large loss for the first time. In 2012, bond markets go from here? For investors, stocks are also bonds more attractive? This year, inflation in China how to tell? How much space will cut reserve rates and interest rate cuts? Weekly Fund invited King along the great wall increased profits Bond Fund to be appointed managersShechunning
cheap runescape items, Bo yi when bond funds to be appointed Yang Yongguang, accommodation seasons Tim Lee Bond Fund Fund Manager to be appointed manager Qiao Yu-senior Fund Manager, such as the above investors in-depth discussions on issues of concern. ⊙ Reporter Huang Jintao An Zhongwen Fund of the week: three fund managers talk about the bond market this year (including earnings),Debt issuance and continued to appear in "Black Swan" how big is the probability of the event?
Main factors influencing the debt issuance and investment gains most of what? Shechunning: this year, the stage of macroeconomics, inflation is down, bond market investment opportunities will be significantly higher than in "stagnation" period of last year. With inflation down, tone of Government macro-control this year by 2011 "Controlled inflation "to 2012" steady growth, structure ", in this context, monetary policy is expected to gradually ease, so bond market good investment opportunities.
On the credit debt investments this year, bond markets, "Black Swan" event is unlikely, but did not rule out possible default risks of individual varieties. Effects of debt issuance and investment incomeThe main factors, or from policy uncertainty, including easing too sharply, or policy adjustments are not timely.
Negative effects of this uncertainty to the economy may be larger. Yang Yongguang: secondary Bond Fund earnings this year could be better than last year because last year "stock debt double kill" appeared little probability of again this year. History appears on the "stockDebt double kill "probability is very low, lower probability for two years in a row. Secondary bond funds, as long as the better class of assets in stocks and bonds, then the secondary bond fund returns may be better.
This has been verified many times in history. Bonds due this year and next, and did not rule out another vicious "credit debt". Influence bondInvestment income most main of factors including: a, and price trend is and members zhiqian of expected phase whether, is price is will in years in the when down to 3% following of level; II, and Europe debt crisis can are effective processing, is will appears some expected zhiwai of event; three, and Middle East situation is will deterioration, this will effect institutions on future inflation of expected; four, and is will appears someIssuers of the credit crisis. Qiao Yufu: economic growth this year and inflation is likely to be a certain degree of decline, while money market funds will be more improved last year, so we are optimistic about this year's bond market as a whole. But because of the interest rate products and AAA grade credit debts have been more fully reflects the fundamentals of the above changes, in terms of absolute gains andRelative difference of view space is limited.
Secondary credit bond ratings and qualifications better, still have value. Individual credit events may still occur in the bond market this year, but the bond market after baptism and lessons, emerging credit event last year, credit bond market has more subdivision, investors are more rational. Individual credit event occurs,May have a negative effect on the bond of your industry, but on the overall credit market for very small probability of impact.
Therefore, while we are bullish on credit market, should do a study on credit coupons of the bonds. The major factors affecting the bond market this year is still the inflation trend changes. We are also concerned about Iran problem and United States may appear toEffect factors on the level of inflation, such as quantitative easing. Fund of the week: 2012, from the perspective of asset allocation, bond assets or equity assets more attractive high?
As a professional investor, you would do in equity funds and bond funds asset allocation? Shechunning: share class asset allocation ratio of debt, whichAssociated with individuals age and risk preference, it is difficult to generalize.
For example, recent graduate young people can spend more on the asset allocation of stocks of assets; middle age could begin to do some configuration of balance considerations; after the middle-aged and elderly, most of the assets of the people may take in distribution of bond assets. Yang Yongguang: perspective from the asset allocation, configuration for a long timeShort can have different configurations of policy. If you are from a long-term perspective, credit debt is a good asset allocation. Current credit-debt issuance rates at all-time highs, and cut lending rates may exist in the future, so at this point the configuration some credit debt high coupon is a better choice if require strict assessment of the credit risk of credit debt. If the short termConfiguring perspective, does not exclude stocks also have a chance. Is currently considering most of the assets they will select bond type of asset. In addition to the reasons said before, there is the current size of the convertible bond market has a larger, and most go there is the yield to maturity of debt decreased by smaller space, into investment capital can replace the stock class investments such as bonds. OnlyBecause go bond varieties with less than a third the size of the stock market for some large institutional investors and large amount of funds for individual investors
buy runescape items, needed to meet the requirements of its configuration through the configuration section shares. Qiao Yufu: last year, the stock market and bond market this year will have better investment opportunities, but we can grasp the opportunities, more optimistic about bond asset class。 Personally, I tend to 80% about asset allocation for the bond funds and the International Monetary Fund, and 20% of assets can be staged to participate in equity index fund. Main reason is: a relatively large, although the stock market after adjustment, some attractive valuations, but because of the macro-economic growth slows, economic structural adjustment in the last, it is difficult to appear of trendsStock quotes; the second, Government concerns about inflation appear repeatedly and on the continuation of the real estate market regulation determines the big improvements in market liquidity is unlikely; capture difficult for three structural market, stock market, bond market relatively more certainty and to grasp. Fund of the week: newly released the January CPI rose 4.5%, Exceeded market expectations before.
Your judgment on how China's inflation this year?
Shechunning: from this year's inflation situation, 2012 trend of inflation continued to drop, although the January CPI to 4.5%, slightly more than expected, but not changed the trend of falling inflation this year is expected February inflation would decline significantly. DrNagamitsu: Although the January CPI exceeded expectations, but the overall level of inflation this year than last year following a step higher probability of, just drop rates may be less than expected, risks exist mainly second half. Qiao Yufu: CPI data released in January significantly exceed market expectations, due to the lunar new year effect and factors such as temperature, per cent from the January food prices by nearly 10 yearsTo new highs. We still believe that this year, CPI will be 3%-3.5% a more acceptable level.
Main reason is that economic growth fell back and tightened the money supply led to the decline in demand and after a year earlier high base low carryover effect. Fund of the week: you on this year's macro-policies, especially monetary policyWhat are the prospects?
Space cut reserve rates and interest rate cuts this year, is expected to have much? Shechunning: cut deposit reserve rate is the probability of the event this year, and lower frequencies in the 2 to 4 times, once the economic downward trend accelerated, the lowering of interest rates is also possible. Interest rates subject to two conditions: first, the CPI fell to one-year fixed deposit rate 3.5% levels; The second, economic data in December last year and January this year after a slight improvement to go down, and down time longer than expected, more than expected.
Central Bank will loosen up liquidity, if you relax the liquidity effect is not good, deposit and loan interest rates will drop. Yang Yongguang: background of this year is the year of General, before the changeover is complete, policy estimated that there will be no big change, smoothWatanabe is the hope of the parties. At the same time, inflation still have greater vigilance, loose policies will not be too great.
We believe that the cut lending rates, deposit rates unchanged this year probability of larger reserves downgrade is likely to have a few times. Qiao Yufu: double drop of as economic growth and inflation, tight monetary policies have greater possibilities will switch to neutral.Decision makers will be based on economy, inflation, exchange rates, and many other factors to consider monetary policy direction. We believe that the reserve rate reduction will depend on the foreign exchange and credit situation, we expect that this year could be 2-3 for further reduction. For purposes of deposit and loan interest rates, unless a more severe economic downturn and deflation, we do not need to cut interest rates。 Fund of the week: on the new positions of the Fund in the future, how did you consider? Whether it will take quick policy positions? What are the positions of the direction?
In 2012, which bonds with investment worth more? Shechunning: the new Fund will take strong positions in the closed period strategy, with the goal of absolute returns. After the closure period, the positions of the Fund principalCredit debt.
After 2011 year of adjustment, credit debt the current absolute yields and credit spreads are at record high levels, compared with the interest rates, credit debts in the future is expected to result in higher ticket income and capital gains dual benefits. Yang Yongguang: Tian Yi is a lower risk/return of the Fund, to target a level of fixed income products, operations would be more stableHealth, possible after the establishment of the Fund does not take policy positions quickly.
Mainly good credit debt and convertible bonds this year, also did not rule out a large proportion of the configured time deposits and repurchase. Qiao Yufu: for a new Fund, we pursue absolute returns on investment, so we plan to quickly finish positions, to get the coupon benefits. Reference to the level of bond yields in recent years,2012 we are more optimistic about the middle level credit classes of bonds, in terms of absolute yields, also is the level of credit spreads, more investment.
In addition, we expect that the larger supply of corporate bonds this year, offering more attractive interest rates and mortgage financing, we provided good investment opportunities on the configuration. Fund of the week: control of fundsDownside risks, what specific measures do you have? Shechunning: in terms of risk control, macroeconomic environment conducive to investment in bonds this year, capital gains losses appear less likely. We will strengthen the risk analysis, cautious about low ratings of credit debt, to avoid credit risks. Stock investment fund 20% section, mainly to obtain absolute gains for the purpose ofStock selection will focus on measures such as dividend rate, dividend yield. Yang Yongguang: there are two types of risk during the operation of the Fund, price fluctuation risks arising from liquidity risk and respond to redemption pressures. In particular
runescape items for sale, the price fluctuation risks from interest rate risk and credit risk, we can lower the bond portfolio duration, the strict bond the storage of auditReduce the risk of such; operate strictly in accordance with the contracts, maintain a certain liquidity ratio, reducing the liquidity risk. How to control the net value of the Fund on the downside risk, day ocean policy is locked as soon as possible of the income Bond Fund, primarily determines the strong assets, such as bonds, deposits of short duration, and so on, less involved in high-risk assets, such as go, such as bonds, stocks。 Qiao Yufu: credit risk is one of the main risks of the investment credit bond, we will refer to strengthen internal rating processes on the basis of external ratings and investment system of library management. Four seasons Tim Lee Bond Fund Facility as closed-end bond funds, we plan to fund portfolio duration and the basic matching fund period, so as to avoid as far as possible liquidity risks and interest rate risksAnd Fund Manager interest rates determine the possible mistakes caused loss of income to the Fund.
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